Have your ice skates been sitting dusty and unused in your closet this winter? Researchers from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have confirmed that the ice coverage on the Great Lakes has hit a historic low in 2024.
On February 11, 2024, NOAA’s research team measured the total Great Lakes ice coverage at just 2.7 per cent. Lake Ontario and Lake Erie sit at 1.7 per cent and 0.05 per cent coverage, respectively.
“Normally, peak ice coverage on average since 1973 to 2023 has been about 40 per cent, so we’re way below that,” says Katrina Moser, an associate professor in the department of geography and environment at Western University.
While this is a record-breaking year for low ice coverage, Moser points out that the numbers follow a long-term warming trend of rising temperatures. It’s no question that anthropogenic climate change is playing a role in the long-term trends of decreasing ice coverage on the Great Lakes, she says.
“We would not have the temperatures we have today in 2023 and 2024 if we didn’t have anthropogenic climate change,” she says.
Scientist Katharine Hayhoe on the effects of climate change at the cottage
Moser says that El Nino is probably playing a role in the unseasonably warm temperatures the Great Lakes region is experiencing this winter. El Nino is a cyclic climate pattern that affects weather globally.
“If you look over time from 2015 to 2023, we’ve had nine of the warmest years on record. Some of those years are El Nino years, but not all of them are. So clearly anthropogenic climate change is a key driver,” says Moser.
Lower ice coverage could have a number of effects on the stability of the Great Lake ecosystems. Without ice cover, the lakes will be warmer for sure, says Moser.
What could be worrisome for cottage owners, she says, is that warmer surface waters can contribute to blue-green algae or cyanobacteria growth, possibly creating the conditions for harmful algal blooms. Moser also says that without the Great Lake’s winter ice cap, water will be able to evaporate from the lakes for a longer period of time. This could lead to lower lake levels and reduced wetlands.
“Canadian lakes normally have ice on them,” Moser says. “The organisms in those lakes are adapted and evolved to be in a setting with ice cover. And if we remove it, that’s going to cause changes and have effects on the lake systems.”
Want to learn more about the effects of climate change on water bodies and how communities can take action on climate change? Western University offers a free online course to promote climate knowledge and inspire action to mitigate climate change.
How will the Great Lakes region be affected by climate change?
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