Earlier this month, the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (MNRF) for the Bracebridge Minden Parry Sound District alerted residents that a water safety bulletin would be in effect until Monday, Mar. 18.
“Runoff to local lakes and rivers are starting to rise with the arrival of the spring freshet,” the bulletin reads.
That’s interesting, because the spring freshet typically arrives in April, as snow and river ice melts. Environment Canada’s senior climatologist David Phillips explains why.
Unseasonably warm weather and quickly melting ice are two factors bringing on the early freshet. “We know that in Canada, this was by far the warmest winter—it wasn’t even close,” says Phillips. “The average temperature in Ontario in December, January, and February, was more than seven degrees warmer than normal.”
And, in Muskoka, March has also been seven degrees warmer than normal, Phillips says. There’s also been a noticeable lack of snow in the region affected by the water safety notice.
Over the last five years, there’s been an average of 45–70 cm of snow on the ground in mid-March, according to data from the Beatrice weather station, says Phillips.
“There’s none right now,” he says. “The snow that fell, which wasn’t a lot, has now entered the water system. So no wonder the concern is a little bit of an early flood.”
“We’ve had very little precipitation in the last couple of months, it’s been way down. So it’s more of a drought situation or a dryness problem than a flooding issue,” he says. But, regardless, there may still be flooding, because the snowmelt can’t percolate if the ground is still frozen.
“Even in a light snowfall year, you get flooding, because you have to get rid of all of that stored precipitation,” he says.
Phillips says those concerned about flooding should be on the lookout earlier too. “People who would be normally bailing and bagging in April, if they have to do it, it’ll be in March.” However, Phillips says the risk of flooding will not likely be as great.
The MNRF advises that lake water levels are within their normal ranges for this time of year. Water levels are expected to rise over the next few weeks as snow melts, but there’s no flood warning at this time.
However, the MNRF is reminding residents to be careful around ice and shorelines. Melting snow banks along shorelines may give way and be slippery. “No ice is safe ice,” according to the ministry.
Those using forest-access roads for outdoor activities may also encounter more water than usual, so people should watch out for washouts and localized flooding.
The safety bulletin is for residents in Parry Sound, Muskoka, parts of the City of Kawartha Lakes surrounding the Black, Burnt, Gull, Magnetawan and Muskoka River watersheds.
Need more news?
Find your cottage state of mind all year round with our weekly newsletter, Dockside
Sign up hereRelated Story Ontario anglers encouraged to remove ice fishing huts earlier as conditions deteriorate
Related Story Ontario government advises caution as bears come out of hibernation early due to mild winter
Related Story Here’s how the milder weather is impacting Ontario’s fish populations